Posts Tagged ‘implied odds’

More On Odds

Hello,

Many people talk about odd and implied odds. Honestly, I don’t know how they arrived at their figures. And I don’t know of anyone who has taken into consideration cards that were already dealt but were dead.

Well, I know this has no scientific basis and was only based on 100 hands dealt, however I pulled 2 nines out of a deck to represent my hand, then randomly dealt 16 cards to represent 8 players who folded their cards,leaving my hand to go heads up against the 10th player.
45% of the time….no nines dealt.
35% of the time….1 nine was dealt.
20% of the time….2 nines were dealt.

I believe it’s the same thing with flushes and straights. Anyway, I wonder how can percentages or probabilities be close to being true or accurate without all the information available, any idea?

Your thoughts please.

Thank you in advance!

Warm regards,
Anthony
Anthony,

They are odds. They are probabilities. They are not scientific fact. You base calculations on unseen cards and the potential cards. It would be more accurate with more information, but since that is not possible, you have to go with the best calculation to give you the best approximation.

Considering the Odds

Hello,

I’m here to ask something. Well, it’s about the decisions I made before which were actually based on pot odds, implied odds, and hand odds. I’ve read a lot of materials before and everything seemed to tell me that if you have the pot odds or the implied odds, you should call, even if you know you are behind, as if you hit you’ll be getting a good return on your investment. In case you don’t have the odds to call, against a drawing hand, you should fold. But then I ask myself, what if you have excellent pot odds, will this call for a raise?

Thanks for your time.

Best regards,
Andrew
Andrew,

While you may have excellent odds, they are still odds, they are not a sure thing. I would shy away from raising. While you may hit and win a bigger pot, if you miss, you will lose much more. You also set yourself up to let the person raise to a point where you don’t have odds.

Pot Odds Problems

Hi,

I was in a certain event just last night. I’ve got 8,10 clubs and the flop was 9,J,4 rainbow therefore I flopped the open ender. Then I called $5 to see the turn but don’t hit. After a while, a particular player placed a bet with two others behind me. At such point, pot was $72. I then considered that because I only had 1 card to go, with 8 outs, I had roughly 16% chance of hitting the river and would probably cost me $10 for the $72 pot, 7:1 on my bet. I immediately folded.

I don’t know why but I thought afterwards that if $82 was in and it would cost me $10 to call the river, then that would be 8:1 on my money. If I have the same 16% chance to hit, it seems that it’s just right to call.

For some time now, I’ve been playing and it seems that I’m always drawing whenever I flopped an open ended straight or 4 to the flush, w/out calculating odds. I’m having problems with gutshot sometimes. Well, I understand that if you have a gutshot on the flop you have a 1/11 chance of hitting. But what if you are playing $3/6, how much should be in the pot for you to call $3 for the gutshot? I guess $33. And how about if have 8 outs, does this mean I have a 1/4 chance on the river? When playing in a low limit game, how strongly should implied odds be considered?

Do you think I’m just missing something? I think I should try to read more tips, situational problems, etc.

Thanks for your time.

Warm regards,
Johnny
Johnny,

In your first example, you actually had odds to call. You had a call equal to 13.8% of the pot and a 16% chance to hit your hand. You should have called.

When figuring out pot odds, if your call is a low percentage of the pot than your percentage to hit your hand, then you need to make the call.

As far as calling $3 for a gutshot draw. On the flop there should be at least $19 in the pot for you to call $3.

Implied odds should not be a concern in Limit Holdem. NL holdem is a better use for Implied odds.

On Various Stack Sizes

Hello,

I have some questions to ask. They are actually related to some stuff I’ve come to discover without any intentions.

In some discussion sections, I’ve come to hear about No Limit Texas Holdem being something related to Deep Stack No Limit or extreme short stack No Limit. In the first one, you can actually play a wide variety of starting hands as the implied odds are excellent. The post flop play is also much complex as bluffing is much more helpful and useful. In the second one, position is very vital as a hand like ATo may be an allin hand right after several limpers in the event you are on the button, however in the event you are under the gun, an easy fold. In connection with this, say in a game, suited connectors seem like of no worth as you will never hit your hand enough while pocket pairs are valuable due to their value. Post flop play on the other hand is more on all-ins and folding.

Now, what hands become more or less playable in no limit games with medium stack? Say in a 1/2 game with effective stacks of $100, I’ll call $10 raises heads up with medium and low pocket pairs to try have a set. In case there no callers would appear, I might call a not so high raise but if in case I’m up against a good player I might fold a PP to a raise to avoid a beat. Then say suited connectors’ value is seriously dependent on the aggressiveness of the game and your position as well, earlier, you will most likely fold but later I’ll limp in when there’s a cheap multi-way flop.

On the other hand, high card hands like AK are where my stress level goes up. More or less in deep stack events on a K98 flop, I’ll fold my AK when things get worst. However in short stack events, it would be a different story. In medium stack events, I’ll be right on the fence.

Oftentimes, when I raise $10 preflop, I’ll get one caller and then flop would appear K98. I’ll then bet about $20 and they’ll push their 90$ stack in. In the end, I’ll get irritated. At times, I’ll be tempted to lay down all as I seem to fold more pretty good hands compared to my opponents at the table.

Now, here are my questions:

1. Is there anything I need to adjust when it comes to my pre-flop raising, limping and raise-calling requirements? And because such games tend to be aggressive post flop particularly online, do you think hands as suited connectors go down in terms of value due to lack of odds to draw? Do I need to call generously in late position or else it should be a no-set-no-bet level of tightness? What do you think?

2. In such games, how should I play marginal hands? I believe in deep stack no limit you don’t want to bet your stack but in short stack you will do everything to have your chips in the middle. How about in medium stack?

3. Say somebody is putting pressure on your head as he has something that could beat you or else just know you are playing tight, how would you play? What will be your defense?

4. When you are in position, what are the moves you should use?

   
   

5. Do you think there is a reason for you to semi-bluff with your primary draw in games where everyone overvalues their hands? Or else just stick to calling in the event you have implied odds or the like?

Thanks for your time.

Regards,
Nickerson
Nickerson,

1. As far as your preflop play, I would stick with trying to see flops cheap with a wide array of reasonable hands. Obviously you want to raise with strong hands, but otherwise, try to see a cheap flop and hope to hit it hard. As far as calling a raise, I would tend to stick with stronger hands to call raises, unless there is a lot of action. Then you can widen the range some, but not get too crazy.

   Hands such as suited connectors do go down in value when the betting is very aggressive post flop. If you play suited connectors, make sure that they are on the higher side to give you better odds of hitting top pair or two pair. In late position after the flop, what you call depends on what you are holding and the number of players and the opponent you are playing. Sometimes playing super tight is right. Sometimes it’s right to call. Poker is situational. It depends on what is going on at the time.

2. With marginal hands, I would try and see cheap flops for the ones that I do play. This is a form of small ball poker. Get in cheap and then punish your opponents when you do hit well.

3. One of two things can be done here. Switch to playing small ball and punish him when your hands hit the flop well or play tight and punish him when your big hands hit. Don’t go crazy and randomly raise or play hands that have no value. This will just bleed your stack.

4. In position, I would bet out on the flop when checked to me a little more often. Semi-bluffing is obviously one tool you should use as well. Raising when you have no hand is something I would reserve for players that I deem that are just trying to steal the pot.

5. When players overvalue their hands, I would stick with calling in the event you miss your draw. When you semi-bluff, you still must hit in order to win. If players overvalue their hands, a bluff will not force them off their hands.