Posts Tagged ‘outs’

On 4/2 Rule

Hi,

Well I’m aware of the shortcut used when figuring out poker odds that I really like; the 4 – 2 rule. And I understand to take the number of outs you have before the turn and simply multiply it by 4 to know your success rate. And before the river, do the same thing but multiply it by 2. I wonder if there’s a shortcut that use the same methodology, you think of any?

Thank you in advance!

Best regards,
Howell
Howell,

The 4-2 rule IS the shortcut. Figuring odds usually involves long equations that many math challenged people can’t grasp. This is a simplified way to do things.

When to Draw

Hi,

I’ve been into poker for some time now but for some reasons I still don’t when I’m supposed to draw. Any thoughts? For an instance I have a four flush on the flop and someone bets big, do you think I should call fold? Or if not, raise?

Your help will be much appreciated.

Thanks a lot!

Warm regards,
Romeo
Romeo,

You should only draw to a straight or flush when you have the proper odds to do so. The simplest way to figure this out is first to determine what outs you have. Say you have 9 outs to hit your hand after the flop. Multiply this by 4 and you have your percentage to hit your hand. If you are on the turn, multiply by 2. Next, divide the amount that you must call in the pot, by the current pot size. This will give you the percentage of the pot that your call represents. If the percentage of your hitting the hand is greater than or equal to the percentage of the pot that you must call, then you should draw. If not, then fold.

Calculating Odds

Well, I already quite understand how odds are calculated. Just one thing hinders me for fully understanding it. When you’re playing with 3 other players, how do you consider your outs? In case you have pocket jacks, you may find it hard to calculate as somebody else at the table may have your jack. When during a game, how do you survive this?

Thanks in advance!

Kirby
Kirby,

You don’t worry about this. You go by the cards that are unseen. While it may be true that one of the players holds the cards, you go by cards unseen to make calculations.

4/2 Rule

Hello,

Say you are at a full table with 9 other players. Then there are 20 cards dealt, 1 is burned and flop 3 is dealt. You actually have AK when flop appears, K 9 2. You have 5 outs ( A,A, A K K) Based on the 4/2 rule, there would be a 20% (4 x 5) possibility for the turn and 10% (2 x 5) for the river. But I wonder, should the 24 cards that were initially bet be considered?

Thanks and more power!

Warm regards,
Jones
Jones,

When using the 4/2 rule, you don’t worry about cards you see or that have been dealt. This is a simplified pot odds method to use that doesn’t require high math competency to use.

Adjusting Game and Quick Calculation Method of Odds

Hello,

Before, I’m actually into hosting of home tournaments which typically with 40-50 players. Buy in then was around $50, therefore I’ve only accepted players who belonged to average to good category. But just recently, I decided to have some friends over to play in small 10-12 people $20 buy-in tournaments. Unfortunately I was busted out in most of those games so quick. I believe my problem then was about adjusting. I found it hard to adjust my game to the table. Maybe one factor to consider is that I’ve been so use to playing with good players, by which my situational bluffs work. Your thoughts?

By the way, I also want to share to you something. One guy once taught me how to calculate hand odds quickly. According to him all I have to do is this – (outs *2) + 1 = percentage. Therefore if you have 8 outs (open ended straight draw) then (8 * 2) + 1 = 17%. But recently I saw that you showed such at 34%. Well, I know that you’re calculating hitting the hand by the river (2 draws). In the event there was a flush potential also then 8 (open ender cards) + 9 (flush cards remaining) – 2 (remove the 2 flush cards that also complete your straight…. 8 added) = 15 outs or 31%.

Hope to hear from you soon.

Many thanks,
Kirk
Kirk,

When you play with bad players, bluffs will not work that well. You will need to either tighten up and play solid poker or play small ball and crush your opponents when you flop well.

Your calculation for hand odds is a good one, but to figure out from the flop, multiply your calculation by 2. 15 outs on the flop has around a 62% chance to win with your formula.

About Flush

Hi,

I don’t know why but it seems to me that drawing for a flush fails more often that I expect. Well, I know that I should also consider that the other players or burn cards are of my suit. For example, I hold two hearts and two hearts come on the flop. In reality, it’s 9 outs for me with two shots to get those outs. And if I will base it on the probability chart, there’ll be a 39% chance to complete. If in quick method, 9 outs * 2 opportunities = 18 * 2 + 1 = 37%. More or less, I’ll call a decent number of bets with a 1:3 chance of a flush.

However, what if there are 8 other players at the table and every player is holding two hole cards, so that would be 16 cards, which probability tells me means 4 hearts? Do you think I should just consider that there are only 5 outs? If so then there’ll be 21% chance, 1:5. Calling will not be a good idea then.

Hope to hear from you in no time.

Thanks in advance.

Regards,
Dennis Martin
Dennis,

You don’t take into consideration other players when calculating your odds. Logic would dictate that you should, but in reality you do not. You go with your nine outs.

Pot Odds and the Cost to See Fourth Street

Hi,

I actually have two questions to ask but before I lay them down let me first share a bit of myself and my poker experience. Well, I am a beginner who play for small amounts with other couples. For the last 6 months, I’ve played online and lost for many times. The bad beats just actually ended when I started following your advices, tips, etc. Thanks to you!

Now here are my questions:

1. How do you quickly figure how much is in the pot when figuring pot odds? Do you normally keep track of it as you go or just make an estimation when it is already your time to make a move?
2. Say I have Ace 8 h and the flop is queen h 5h 3d. Then my outs are 9 h’s and 3 aces for a total of 12 outs. Later to hit 4th street I have around 24% chance and to the river I have around 48%. At such point, pot size is $100 and for me to stay it will cost me $25 or less. But I wonder, what if it will cost me $75 to stay to see 4th street? Will it be worth it?

Thanks in advance!

Warm regards,
James
James,

1. You need to either track it yourself or get good at estimating the pot size by sight.
   
2. A $75 bet is 42% of the pot. Since you have a 48% chance on the flop to hit your hand by the river, you have odds and should call.

With Losing Hands

Hi,

I’m here to ask this, how will you know you have the best hand? Recently I played online and had KQs. Well, it was a 1$ big blind table. At the position before the button, there were no raises preflop therefore I just raised 1$. Players who were in the hand called. Flop then came and brought 333. Checks all around followed. After a while turn came and brought Q, it then checked all around. River came and was K. It later checked around to me therefore I decided to place 5$ bet. Everyone else then folded except for one player who re-raised me 15$. I then called with the thought that everything was just a bluff. He then showed me K3 off suit and immediately taken down the pot.

Now as I try to analyze things up I can’t afford not to think that I maybe have misplayed the hand. Also, I’ve read in books and websites that “If the pot is laying you 6:1 and your no worse than that to win it, make the call”. But I don’t know how can I ascertain if I’m 6:1 to win the hand or not.

The other day I’ve seen plenty of examples on your odds of making a draw or improving your hand, but I wonder, what if you’re not drawing to the Nuts, how can you tell what your winning odds are?

Please I need your help. Thanks in advance!

Best regards,
Tommy
Tommy,

First, that was a split pot. Both of you had three’s full of kings.

Next to determine whether your worse than 6 to 1 to win, when you 6 to1, you are around 17% to win the hand. If you are on the flop, figure out the number of outs to win the hand. Multiply it by 4. This will give you your percentage to win the hand by the river. If it is greater or equal to 17, then you are better than 6 to 1. On the turn, calculate your outs by 2 to get the percentage. If you are equal or better than 17% to hit your hand, then you are better than 6 to 1.

4/2 Rule and KsTs

Hi,

First, I want to congratulate you for having this site. Congrats and keep up the good work!

Well, I’m actually here to ask something. A certain guy said something about the 4/2 rule for assessing odds on hands to me before but unfortunately didn’t understand well what he meant. Do you have any idea about such rule?

Another thing, say you have KsTs, all called and you have one guy raised, how strong is the hand then, particularly when you have 5-8 players?

Thanks in advance!

Best regards,
Richard
Richard,

The 4-2 rule is used in determining what your percentage is to make your hand by the river. On the flop, you count your number of outs and multiply by 4. If you have 9 outs, you have a 36% chance to hit your hand by the river. If you are on the turn, you multiply your outs by 2. In the same scenario, you have an 18% chance to win.

Ks-Ts in a 5 handed pot is not very strong. It is likely behind. Without more information on the hand, I am unable to give specific percentages.

Turn or River Odds

Hello,

Once in a certain material I encountered this line: “For figuring out odds for a draw that can hit on either the turn or the river (keyword either), you need to do something a little more complicated — you figure out what the odds are of not hitting it and the subtracting that number by 1. Since 5 cards give us our hand, there must be 42 that don’t. Then on the river if we haven’t hit there must be 41 cards that don’t make our hand. 42/47 * 41/46. This gives us 795, now subtract that from 1 to get the percentage of 20%. Flop to River % = 1 – [ ((47 - Outs) / 47) * ((46 - Outs) / 46) ]”. Can you please explain this to me a little more?

I’ll be looking forward for your response.

Many thanks,
Jason
Jason,

Make is simple on yourself. When you are at the flop, figure out the number of cards that you perceive as your outs and multiply that by 4. This will give you the percentage to hit your hand on the flop. At the turn, multiply your outs by 2. This will give your percentage to hit your hand.

Outs and What Cards to Play

Hi,

I have two questions. I hope you’re not too busy.

Well, the first one is about the many things about “outs”. In your own opinion, is it better to have more or less outs? And when playing an off suit hand like A,9, are there actually only 6 possible outs?

For my second question which is actually about what cards to play, say I get dealt A,9 suited and I feel that hand is worth playing and I can make the highest flush though I can only make a one card straight, what do you think I should do?

I’ll be glad to hear from you in no time.

Thanks a ton!

Warm regards,
Jake
Jake,

The more outs you have the better off you are. In regards to A-9 suited, this is either a late position hand or a hand to see a cheap flop with, especially in the blinds. I wouldn’t go crazy with this hand unless I am short stacked in a tournament.

Pot Odds Problems

Hi,

I was in a certain event just last night. I’ve got 8,10 clubs and the flop was 9,J,4 rainbow therefore I flopped the open ender. Then I called $5 to see the turn but don’t hit. After a while, a particular player placed a bet with two others behind me. At such point, pot was $72. I then considered that because I only had 1 card to go, with 8 outs, I had roughly 16% chance of hitting the river and would probably cost me $10 for the $72 pot, 7:1 on my bet. I immediately folded.

I don’t know why but I thought afterwards that if $82 was in and it would cost me $10 to call the river, then that would be 8:1 on my money. If I have the same 16% chance to hit, it seems that it’s just right to call.

For some time now, I’ve been playing and it seems that I’m always drawing whenever I flopped an open ended straight or 4 to the flush, w/out calculating odds. I’m having problems with gutshot sometimes. Well, I understand that if you have a gutshot on the flop you have a 1/11 chance of hitting. But what if you are playing $3/6, how much should be in the pot for you to call $3 for the gutshot? I guess $33. And how about if have 8 outs, does this mean I have a 1/4 chance on the river? When playing in a low limit game, how strongly should implied odds be considered?

Do you think I’m just missing something? I think I should try to read more tips, situational problems, etc.

Thanks for your time.

Warm regards,
Johnny
Johnny,

In your first example, you actually had odds to call. You had a call equal to 13.8% of the pot and a 16% chance to hit your hand. You should have called.

When figuring out pot odds, if your call is a low percentage of the pot than your percentage to hit your hand, then you need to make the call.

As far as calling $3 for a gutshot draw. On the flop there should be at least $19 in the pot for you to call $3.

Implied odds should not be a concern in Limit Holdem. NL holdem is a better use for Implied odds.

Away from the Set

Hi,

I’m now into 1-2 NL cash games. I play for two times a week. Typically, games are very loose with raises to 10 dollars being called by 3-5 players.

Recently, in a certain game, I was very tight and so I was not able to see a lot of playable hands. In the SB, I had pocket 8′s. At some point, I raised to 10 but before that there were around 3 callers. BB then called and 2 others followed. I placed BB on a good hand while others on second-rate hands. Flop then came and brought 8-7-5 rainbow. I then placed 20 bet. BB raised me to 60. Two players then called the 60 while I went all in. After a while, both players called and flipped 6-4 and 9-6 over. Unfortunately, board didn’t gave any pair therefore I lost about 85.

Any thoughts about the way I played? What else could have done to get away from trouble?

Thanks in advance.

All the best,
Chin
Chin,

I believe you played fine. You had two bad players that flopped incredibly lucky. Also, remember that while they did get lucky against, you still had outs to win. I would have lost the hand too. Its hard to get away from top set on a medium flop such as that.