Posts Tagged ‘pot odds’

Equations on Pot Odds

Hi,

Thanks for your quick response last time. Now I believe I have already figured out the equivalent to your examples of figuring out pot odds:

The equation for finding pot odds based off the pot value is:
(100 * Bet Amount) / %Chance to Hit < Pot Value

The equation for finding pot odds based off the bet amount is:
(%Chance to Hit * Pot Value) / 100 > Bet Amount

For me, the first equation is easier to calculate than the second but actually works tougher in no limit against limit as bets could be any odd number. Second equation is actually harder to compute however works better in no limit.

Anything to say or comment about my equations? I hope I make sense here.

I’ll be looking forward for your response. Thanks a lot!

Regards,
Tim
Tim,

I am not a math expert, but if this calculation is producing the desired result in your game, by all means use it. Use whatever advantage you can to help your win ethically.

How Important Are Pot Odds?

Yesterday I was in a friendly tourney. Something came up. Right after I mucked my straight flush draw on the river based on pot odds and saw the card I needed, I started to think if pots odds are really that important in a tourney ever since. Your thoughts on this?

In ring games I know pot odds are significant in case you want to play with probabilities and make them play in your advantage.

By the way, if I may just share this, I lost AAA once to a guy who called my all-in with lesser chips and with a straight draw on the river. He needed a 9 and then that was it, he got A 9 on the river. Was he just lucky then?

Thank you very much!

Regards,
Turner
Turner,

Pot odds are very important in tournaments. A lot of times it makes the difference in calling an all-in for your tournament life and folding.

In regards to the A-9 hand, he was just lucky. On the flop, he had 16% to win and on the turn he only had 8% to win.

4/2 Rule

Hello,

Say you are at a full table with 9 other players. Then there are 20 cards dealt, 1 is burned and flop 3 is dealt. You actually have AK when flop appears, K 9 2. You have 5 outs ( A,A, A K K) Based on the 4/2 rule, there would be a 20% (4 x 5) possibility for the turn and 10% (2 x 5) for the river. But I wonder, should the 24 cards that were initially bet be considered?

Thanks and more power!

Warm regards,
Jones
Jones,

When using the 4/2 rule, you don’t worry about cards you see or that have been dealt. This is a simplified pot odds method to use that doesn’t require high math competency to use.

Pot Odds and the Cost to See Fourth Street

Hi,

I actually have two questions to ask but before I lay them down let me first share a bit of myself and my poker experience. Well, I am a beginner who play for small amounts with other couples. For the last 6 months, I’ve played online and lost for many times. The bad beats just actually ended when I started following your advices, tips, etc. Thanks to you!

Now here are my questions:

1. How do you quickly figure how much is in the pot when figuring pot odds? Do you normally keep track of it as you go or just make an estimation when it is already your time to make a move?
2. Say I have Ace 8 h and the flop is queen h 5h 3d. Then my outs are 9 h’s and 3 aces for a total of 12 outs. Later to hit 4th street I have around 24% chance and to the river I have around 48%. At such point, pot size is $100 and for me to stay it will cost me $25 or less. But I wonder, what if it will cost me $75 to stay to see 4th street? Will it be worth it?

Thanks in advance!

Warm regards,
James
James,

1. You need to either track it yourself or get good at estimating the pot size by sight.
   
2. A $75 bet is 42% of the pot. Since you have a 48% chance on the flop to hit your hand by the river, you have odds and should call.

Considering the Odds

Hello,

I’m here to ask something. Well, it’s about the decisions I made before which were actually based on pot odds, implied odds, and hand odds. I’ve read a lot of materials before and everything seemed to tell me that if you have the pot odds or the implied odds, you should call, even if you know you are behind, as if you hit you’ll be getting a good return on your investment. In case you don’t have the odds to call, against a drawing hand, you should fold. But then I ask myself, what if you have excellent pot odds, will this call for a raise?

Thanks for your time.

Best regards,
Andrew
Andrew,

While you may have excellent odds, they are still odds, they are not a sure thing. I would shy away from raising. While you may hit and win a bigger pot, if you miss, you will lose much more. You also set yourself up to let the person raise to a point where you don’t have odds.

Texas Holdem Pot Odds

Hi,

Say there are 4 players in a hand and after the flop I’m on the button. Then small blind bets and everyone else calls. Do you think I need to calculate their bets into the pot size? For an instance, pot size $7, 1pl bet $3, 2pl call $3, and 3pl call $3. If in case I have 19% to hit my flush, do you think I have to add up the pot size with the bets behind me to calculate pot odds? If so, will it be 7 + 3 / 3 = 3/10 =30%? How about 16+3/3=3/19 = 15.7%? Your thoughts please.

Hope to hear from you soon.

Many thanks,
Victor
Victor,

You need to include all the money in the pot from all players to calculate your pot odds. It would be Size of Pot/Your call=Percentage of pot. In your case 16/3=.1875 or 18.75%. You can round this up to 19% if you so desire. You have the exact minimum you need to call this bet.

Preflop Starting Hands Odds

Hi,

For 18 months now, I’ve been playing holdem and been reading some helpful books. Good thing now is, I can already calculate pot odds after the flop, turn, and river. However, I still have no idea how to calculate odds before the flop. Any idea?

Say I was dealt KQs and then raised on the button and consequently was re-raised. Do you think in case I put my opponent on AA, I’d be a 2-1 or 3-1 dog? I haven’t found any chart on this.

Another thing, how much of a dog is 7-2 vs. AA 10-1 etc.? Your thoughts please.

Thank you in advance!

Regards,
Lloyd
Lloyd,

Pocket Aces are an 87% to 12% favorite over 7-2. That’s around a 7.25 to 1 underdog. The best thing would be to get a preflop odds calculator or draw up a chart of common hands. Many odds calculators can be found online.

Pot Odds Problems

Hi,

I was in a certain event just last night. I’ve got 8,10 clubs and the flop was 9,J,4 rainbow therefore I flopped the open ender. Then I called $5 to see the turn but don’t hit. After a while, a particular player placed a bet with two others behind me. At such point, pot was $72. I then considered that because I only had 1 card to go, with 8 outs, I had roughly 16% chance of hitting the river and would probably cost me $10 for the $72 pot, 7:1 on my bet. I immediately folded.

I don’t know why but I thought afterwards that if $82 was in and it would cost me $10 to call the river, then that would be 8:1 on my money. If I have the same 16% chance to hit, it seems that it’s just right to call.

For some time now, I’ve been playing and it seems that I’m always drawing whenever I flopped an open ended straight or 4 to the flush, w/out calculating odds. I’m having problems with gutshot sometimes. Well, I understand that if you have a gutshot on the flop you have a 1/11 chance of hitting. But what if you are playing $3/6, how much should be in the pot for you to call $3 for the gutshot? I guess $33. And how about if have 8 outs, does this mean I have a 1/4 chance on the river? When playing in a low limit game, how strongly should implied odds be considered?

Do you think I’m just missing something? I think I should try to read more tips, situational problems, etc.

Thanks for your time.

Warm regards,
Johnny
Johnny,

In your first example, you actually had odds to call. You had a call equal to 13.8% of the pot and a 16% chance to hit your hand. You should have called.

When figuring out pot odds, if your call is a low percentage of the pot than your percentage to hit your hand, then you need to make the call.

As far as calling $3 for a gutshot draw. On the flop there should be at least $19 in the pot for you to call $3.

Implied odds should not be a concern in Limit Holdem. NL holdem is a better use for Implied odds.

Pot Odds Equation

Hi there!

I saw one comment that appeared as:

x = his bet
x/(pot + x) = your % of winning
x/(100 + x) = your % of winning
x/(100 + x) = .48
x = 48 + .48x
.52x = 48
x = 92

With utmost respect, if I may just say, I think this one may be better:

2X/(pot+2X)=your%winning …

Your thoughts? By the way, I don’t mean to offend you. I’m just suggesting.

Thanks!

Best regards,
Frank
Frank,

I personally prefer the 4/2 method of calculating pot odds. It’s the simplest and quickest method to calculate odds. However, if this equation works for you, then by all means use it. Good luck to you.

With Implied Odds

Hello,

I’m here to ask something about pot odds. Say you are playing in a full table, no limit cash game, with blinds of $0.50/$1.00. Then blinds post and three limpers appear. You check and you discover you have Ks Ts in the button. You call and SB folds while BB checks. Pot at such point is $5. Then flop brings As 2s 5c. BB bets $5 and one limper calls. Pot is now $15. To go on to the turn to get 3-1, it would cost you $5.

Now you have 2-1 to hit by the river, but 4-1 to hit by the turn. If you can ascertain if he wouldn’t bet on the turn then you can use the 2-1 method, but you can use 4-1 instead in case you don’t know such.

Well, for your theory of throwing the hand away because your opponent rates to bet the turn, I think you are missing something. For me, I’d still make the call as when you actually make your flush on the turn, you want your opponent to bet into you. In case I hit it on the turn, then more or less they will bet into me and I’ll probably win lots of money. In case I miss, I can get lost or when they grant me a free card, I can try again to make a flush or else bluff them till they are out. Any thoughts?

Thanks in advance!

All the best,
Joey
Joey,

Personally, on the flop, I am sticking with my odds to determine the call in most cases. In the scenario you presented, you have a 36% chance to hit your flush by the river. If my call is 36% or less of the pot, then I will call. In your scenario, the $5 call is only 33% of the pot. I am making the call here.

On Odds

Hello,

Say in late position I started the hand with Js and 10c. Afterwards, everybody called. I also called and then flop appeared, Ah Qh 9s. I now have an open ended straight draw. Two out of five players who called pre-flop remains at such point. One player raised the other called. Then I called after I considered my odds and the pot odds. Turn came, 4h. Then same player raised. At such point maybe the other two guys have an ace and so I might win in case I draw the straight on the river. But I noticed three hearts were on the board and if either one of them has pocket hearts I will lose. Based on your probabilities chart there was a 1:4 chance of being dealt suited cards although I’m assuming the odds of being dealt suited hearts are 1:16. And with two or three players the odds that at least one of them has pocket hearts may be better than 1:16. Odds then were 1:4. I figured out with my open ended straight draw I have eight outs with about 1:6 odds of hitting it.

How do you think I can factor my opponents 1:4 odds of having a flush and beating me and my 1:6 odds of hitting the straight combined with the pot odds to ascertain whether or not I should call or fold?

Thanks a lot!

Regards,
Denz
Denz,

At the turn, with 8 outs, you have a 16% chance to hit your hand. If you don’t think your opponent has a flush, if the amount to call is 16% or less of the total pot, then take a shot at your draw. Otherwise, it is time to fold.

Raising on the Flop with a Flush Draw to Obtain a Free Card

Hi,

I want to ask something. It’s about raising on the flop with a flush draw to obtain a free card. I’m wondering if you know what’s the logical and sound way to make this play in the event there’s action on the turn. Any thoughts?

Another thing, is the act of raising the flop to obtain a free card the best move when playing against 1 opponent with a made hand? And if a call and a bet appear, what do you think will happen?

Well, in limits things seem clear, but I’m clueless about the things to happen in case you miss on the turn. Is it worth calling a bet on the turn? But how about if they bet with a reasonable amount on the flop?

I look forward to hearing from you soon.

Many thanks!

Warm regards,
Leo
Leo,

Raising to get a free card is best to do with one or two opponents only. If they call, they may check on the turn to you. If they don’t, this gives you a better idea of the hand they have. But another thing is that if they call the raise, they may be laying you better odds to draw on the turn to you flush.

On the turn, you have to go by pot odds to determine to draw or not. If you have the proper odds, then call the bet. If you don’t, then fold.