Posts Tagged ‘probabilities’

How to Calculate Poker Odds

Hello,

I have a problem on how to calculate poker odds. Well, I have already seen all the hand odds/probabilities charts and already found brief summaries on how to calculate poker odds. But still, I have some questions in mind. Say you didn’t get an ace for a first card and so the odds of getting it on your second increase to 51:1. I know writing everything in paper is quite impractical, so can I do the calculation myself?

Assume that I have two suited cards in my hand and I like to calculate the poker odds of drawing a complete flush by the flop, and so as by the turn and river. In case I have 3 to the flush on the flop, what’s next? How about 4 to the flush on the flop, etc.?

Please help me. Thank you in advance!

Best regards,
Charlie Cowell
Charlie,

By all means, if you would rather do calculations yourself, you can, but to be honest, doing them on paper is long and drawed out. You need to learn to be able to do these calculations in your head. You should use the 4 – 2 method to calculate odds. Also, you shouldn’t be trying to figure odds on runner runner draws. That is just going to burn money out of your stack.

Cards Unseen and Odds

Hi,

I’ve been checking on your site for some tips and strategies. One time as I was reading one of your articles, I thought of something which I can’t directly figured out. Most of the time, you base the establishing of the odds of getting a card on fourth street and then on fifth street on the remaining deck, for an instance 47 then 46. Well to me this is just simple to understand but I have one concern. In case there are nine other players, each with two pocket cards, will the probability of catching `your trips/four of a kind, straight, flush etc., become conditional on your need cards not sitting in another pocket? How do you think one figures out the real statistical probabilities with regards to such?

I’ll be glad to hear from you soon.

Many thanks,
Lance
Lance,

You figure your probability based on unseen cards. Just because the cards “might” be in someone else’s hand, that does not mean they are. I’m sure that the statistical probabilities are available on said scenario, but they are not part of practical poker odds calculations.

Improving Pocket Cards Odds

Hi there!

I’m here once again to ask something. This time my question is regarding odds of improving pocket cards. Once I had the chance to take a look at the table you provided under the heading ‘Hand odds and probabilities’ but things seemed a bit confusing as the poker terminologies used were complexed then.

Now, say I am dealt a pocket pair and I would like to know the odds of improving this by the flop, turn and river for all possible combinations. Format could be like ??/1 and could actually be used for other variations of pocket cards like suited cards for flushes and straight flushes, connected cards for straights, and the like.

I’ll be expecting for your response in no time.

Thanks a ton!

Regards,
Gerard McClaine
Gerard,

First lets figure out your odds not to improve on each card on the flop. First, 48 cards out of 50 will not improve you hand on the flop. This is represented by 48/50. The second card is 47/50, and the third card 46/50. You then divide the numerator by the denominator and get you percentage for each card. For our example that is .96, .959, and .958. Multiply those three numbers together and you get .88, which is 88%. This means that there is an 88% chance that you will miss the flop and a 12% chance that you will hit the flop and make your set.

Beyond this, use the 4 and 2 method to calculate turn and river odds. Multiply your out, 2, by 4 which will yield 8% to catch your set on the turn. Then multiply 2 by 2 to get your result of 4% to improve on the river.

I would recommend you do some research about calculations online to help determine the other variations that you’re looking for.

More On Odds

Hello,

Many people talk about odd and implied odds. Honestly, I don’t know how they arrived at their figures. And I don’t know of anyone who has taken into consideration cards that were already dealt but were dead.

Well, I know this has no scientific basis and was only based on 100 hands dealt, however I pulled 2 nines out of a deck to represent my hand, then randomly dealt 16 cards to represent 8 players who folded their cards,leaving my hand to go heads up against the 10th player.
45% of the time….no nines dealt.
35% of the time….1 nine was dealt.
20% of the time….2 nines were dealt.

I believe it’s the same thing with flushes and straights. Anyway, I wonder how can percentages or probabilities be close to being true or accurate without all the information available, any idea?

Your thoughts please.

Thank you in advance!

Warm regards,
Anthony
Anthony,

They are odds. They are probabilities. They are not scientific fact. You base calculations on unseen cards and the potential cards. It would be more accurate with more information, but since that is not possible, you have to go with the best calculation to give you the best approximation.

How Important Are Pot Odds?

Yesterday I was in a friendly tourney. Something came up. Right after I mucked my straight flush draw on the river based on pot odds and saw the card I needed, I started to think if pots odds are really that important in a tourney ever since. Your thoughts on this?

In ring games I know pot odds are significant in case you want to play with probabilities and make them play in your advantage.

By the way, if I may just share this, I lost AAA once to a guy who called my all-in with lesser chips and with a straight draw on the river. He needed a 9 and then that was it, he got A 9 on the river. Was he just lucky then?

Thank you very much!

Regards,
Turner
Turner,

Pot odds are very important in tournaments. A lot of times it makes the difference in calling an all-in for your tournament life and folding.

In regards to the A-9 hand, he was just lucky. On the flop, he had 16% to win and on the turn he only had 8% to win.

Playing Online Probabilities

Hello,

Just 4 months ago, I started playing holdem at Poker Stars. First I was okay playing at play tables but later on was constantly being beaten. Well I know that playing on play money tables is unstable and erratic but still I want to try my luck. Luckily, I later discovered your site and after reading some of your writings, I improved a bit. Thanks to you!

As of the moment, I’m trying some real money sites. I’m more on no limit games in low games. I have already ventured into the $5/$10 games. I know it’s important to have perseverance at all times to eventually learn everything and so I’m trying to maintain it at all means.

I now live in Montreal Canada and unfortunately the casino here has no Holdem games at all therefore I just play online.

Now my question is, do the same probabilities apply in playing online through a computer program which deals the cards as playing live at a casino where there’s a manual dealing of the cards? At times I think so however I am not so sure. Your thoughts?

Thanks in advance.

Best regards,
Kit
Kit,

The same odds and probabilities apply online as they do live. The only difference is that live you get way fewer hands than you do online. You can always download software or use certain calculators online to help you figure out percentages if you are stumped.