Posts Tagged ‘river’

How to Calculate Poker Odds

Hello,

I have a problem on how to calculate poker odds. Well, I have already seen all the hand odds/probabilities charts and already found brief summaries on how to calculate poker odds. But still, I have some questions in mind. Say you didn’t get an ace for a first card and so the odds of getting it on your second increase to 51:1. I know writing everything in paper is quite impractical, so can I do the calculation myself?

Assume that I have two suited cards in my hand and I like to calculate the poker odds of drawing a complete flush by the flop, and so as by the turn and river. In case I have 3 to the flush on the flop, what’s next? How about 4 to the flush on the flop, etc.?

Please help me. Thank you in advance!

Best regards,
Charlie Cowell
Charlie,

By all means, if you would rather do calculations yourself, you can, but to be honest, doing them on paper is long and drawed out. You need to learn to be able to do these calculations in your head. You should use the 4 – 2 method to calculate odds. Also, you shouldn’t be trying to figure odds on runner runner draws. That is just going to burn money out of your stack.

On 4/2 Rule

Hi,

Well I’m aware of the shortcut used when figuring out poker odds that I really like; the 4 – 2 rule. And I understand to take the number of outs you have before the turn and simply multiply it by 4 to know your success rate. And before the river, do the same thing but multiply it by 2. I wonder if there’s a shortcut that use the same methodology, you think of any?

Thank you in advance!

Best regards,
Howell
Howell,

The 4-2 rule IS the shortcut. Figuring odds usually involves long equations that many math challenged people can’t grasp. This is a simplified way to do things.

Improving Pocket Cards Odds

Hi there!

I’m here once again to ask something. This time my question is regarding odds of improving pocket cards. Once I had the chance to take a look at the table you provided under the heading ‘Hand odds and probabilities’ but things seemed a bit confusing as the poker terminologies used were complexed then.

Now, say I am dealt a pocket pair and I would like to know the odds of improving this by the flop, turn and river for all possible combinations. Format could be like ??/1 and could actually be used for other variations of pocket cards like suited cards for flushes and straight flushes, connected cards for straights, and the like.

I’ll be expecting for your response in no time.

Thanks a ton!

Regards,
Gerard McClaine
Gerard,

First lets figure out your odds not to improve on each card on the flop. First, 48 cards out of 50 will not improve you hand on the flop. This is represented by 48/50. The second card is 47/50, and the third card 46/50. You then divide the numerator by the denominator and get you percentage for each card. For our example that is .96, .959, and .958. Multiply those three numbers together and you get .88, which is 88%. This means that there is an 88% chance that you will miss the flop and a 12% chance that you will hit the flop and make your set.

Beyond this, use the 4 and 2 method to calculate turn and river odds. Multiply your out, 2, by 4 which will yield 8% to catch your set on the turn. Then multiply 2 by 2 to get your result of 4% to improve on the river.

I would recommend you do some research about calculations online to help determine the other variations that you’re looking for.

Chances of Hitting

Hi,

I’m wondering if what are the odds for the over cards hitting again, any idea? And before preflop, how do you figure them out? Well I do know that there’s a 6 out of 47 and 6 out of 46 percent chance of hitting on the turn and river, however how do you calculate for all three cards of the flop? Your thoughts please.

Hope to hear from you soon.

Many thanks,
Jeffrey Green
Jeffrey,

The odds of your overcards hitting the flop are 2 to 1 against. To calculate this, deduct the number of cards in your hand and all the aces and king remaining in the deck. The flops that can be dealt that miss your hand is C(44,3). The percentage of flops you won’t pair is C(44,3)/C(50,3), or about 67%, which is 2:1 once converted into odds.

How Important Are Pot Odds?

Yesterday I was in a friendly tourney. Something came up. Right after I mucked my straight flush draw on the river based on pot odds and saw the card I needed, I started to think if pots odds are really that important in a tourney ever since. Your thoughts on this?

In ring games I know pot odds are significant in case you want to play with probabilities and make them play in your advantage.

By the way, if I may just share this, I lost AAA once to a guy who called my all-in with lesser chips and with a straight draw on the river. He needed a 9 and then that was it, he got A 9 on the river. Was he just lucky then?

Thank you very much!

Regards,
Turner
Turner,

Pot odds are very important in tournaments. A lot of times it makes the difference in calling an all-in for your tournament life and folding.

In regards to the A-9 hand, he was just lucky. On the flop, he had 16% to win and on the turn he only had 8% to win.

Heads Up Odds

Hi,

Just recently, I had an argument with a certain guy online. Well, he went all in with Queens and had two callers who created a side pot. Back then, I had AJ. There was another guy but I don’t know what he had then as he folded earlier. At some point, I had running Aces on the turn and river to win the hand. He then started complaining about my luckiness. I told him afterwards that Queens was not a mortal lock as long as I had one overcard and straight potential. And that with two callers, he was actually the favorite but also the overall dog.

I’ve been watching WSOP for some time now and from it I’ve learned a few things. The most important thing I guess is the one about when a pair against two overcards is a 53% favorite head’s up; the higher of two pairs is an 80% favorite head-to-head.

Anyway, guy who hosted the house game said I played the worst starting hand (72) against the best (AA) which will win about 12% of the time. Your thoughts?

On a side note, what are the odds of QQ against AJ as outlined above? I think the answer would be around 65%.

Thank you in advance!

Best regards,
Tyler
Tyler,

Pocket queens are 71% against A-J. 7-2 offsuit will indeed beat A-A 12% of the time. You were incorrect with him being an overall underdog with two callers. Actually, with 2 callers, he becomes more of a favorite over you depending on the hand. His win percentage is lowered, but so is everyone elses.

As far as your hand, you were fortunate to win, but heads-up both of the hands were very strong. He is just upset you won.

Adjusting Game and Quick Calculation Method of Odds

Hello,

Before, I’m actually into hosting of home tournaments which typically with 40-50 players. Buy in then was around $50, therefore I’ve only accepted players who belonged to average to good category. But just recently, I decided to have some friends over to play in small 10-12 people $20 buy-in tournaments. Unfortunately I was busted out in most of those games so quick. I believe my problem then was about adjusting. I found it hard to adjust my game to the table. Maybe one factor to consider is that I’ve been so use to playing with good players, by which my situational bluffs work. Your thoughts?

By the way, I also want to share to you something. One guy once taught me how to calculate hand odds quickly. According to him all I have to do is this – (outs *2) + 1 = percentage. Therefore if you have 8 outs (open ended straight draw) then (8 * 2) + 1 = 17%. But recently I saw that you showed such at 34%. Well, I know that you’re calculating hitting the hand by the river (2 draws). In the event there was a flush potential also then 8 (open ender cards) + 9 (flush cards remaining) – 2 (remove the 2 flush cards that also complete your straight…. 8 added) = 15 outs or 31%.

Hope to hear from you soon.

Many thanks,
Kirk
Kirk,

When you play with bad players, bluffs will not work that well. You will need to either tighten up and play solid poker or play small ball and crush your opponents when you flop well.

Your calculation for hand odds is a good one, but to figure out from the flop, multiply your calculation by 2. 15 outs on the flop has around a 62% chance to win with your formula.

Pot Odds and the Cost to See Fourth Street

Hi,

I actually have two questions to ask but before I lay them down let me first share a bit of myself and my poker experience. Well, I am a beginner who play for small amounts with other couples. For the last 6 months, I’ve played online and lost for many times. The bad beats just actually ended when I started following your advices, tips, etc. Thanks to you!

Now here are my questions:

1. How do you quickly figure how much is in the pot when figuring pot odds? Do you normally keep track of it as you go or just make an estimation when it is already your time to make a move?
2. Say I have Ace 8 h and the flop is queen h 5h 3d. Then my outs are 9 h’s and 3 aces for a total of 12 outs. Later to hit 4th street I have around 24% chance and to the river I have around 48%. At such point, pot size is $100 and for me to stay it will cost me $25 or less. But I wonder, what if it will cost me $75 to stay to see 4th street? Will it be worth it?

Thanks in advance!

Warm regards,
James
James,

1. You need to either track it yourself or get good at estimating the pot size by sight.
   
2. A $75 bet is 42% of the pot. Since you have a 48% chance on the flop to hit your hand by the river, you have odds and should call.

4/2 Rule and KsTs

Hi,

First, I want to congratulate you for having this site. Congrats and keep up the good work!

Well, I’m actually here to ask something. A certain guy said something about the 4/2 rule for assessing odds on hands to me before but unfortunately didn’t understand well what he meant. Do you have any idea about such rule?

Another thing, say you have KsTs, all called and you have one guy raised, how strong is the hand then, particularly when you have 5-8 players?

Thanks in advance!

Best regards,
Richard
Richard,

The 4-2 rule is used in determining what your percentage is to make your hand by the river. On the flop, you count your number of outs and multiply by 4. If you have 9 outs, you have a 36% chance to hit your hand by the river. If you are on the turn, you multiply your outs by 2. In the same scenario, you have an 18% chance to win.

Ks-Ts in a 5 handed pot is not very strong. It is likely behind. Without more information on the hand, I am unable to give specific percentages.

Turn or River Odds

Hello,

Once in a certain material I encountered this line: “For figuring out odds for a draw that can hit on either the turn or the river (keyword either), you need to do something a little more complicated — you figure out what the odds are of not hitting it and the subtracting that number by 1. Since 5 cards give us our hand, there must be 42 that don’t. Then on the river if we haven’t hit there must be 41 cards that don’t make our hand. 42/47 * 41/46. This gives us 795, now subtract that from 1 to get the percentage of 20%. Flop to River % = 1 – [ ((47 - Outs) / 47) * ((46 - Outs) / 46) ]”. Can you please explain this to me a little more?

I’ll be looking forward for your response.

Many thanks,
Jason
Jason,

Make is simple on yourself. When you are at the flop, figure out the number of cards that you perceive as your outs and multiply that by 4. This will give you the percentage to hit your hand on the flop. At the turn, multiply your outs by 2. This will give your percentage to hit your hand.

Last Card Called as the River

Hello,

I don’t understand why the last card is called the river. Do you have any idea on this?

I hope to hear from you in no time.

Thanks a lot!

Regards,
Jester
Jester,

The best answer I can find is that the game originated on riverboats and that is one reason.

Pot Odds Problems

Hi,

I was in a certain event just last night. I’ve got 8,10 clubs and the flop was 9,J,4 rainbow therefore I flopped the open ender. Then I called $5 to see the turn but don’t hit. After a while, a particular player placed a bet with two others behind me. At such point, pot was $72. I then considered that because I only had 1 card to go, with 8 outs, I had roughly 16% chance of hitting the river and would probably cost me $10 for the $72 pot, 7:1 on my bet. I immediately folded.

I don’t know why but I thought afterwards that if $82 was in and it would cost me $10 to call the river, then that would be 8:1 on my money. If I have the same 16% chance to hit, it seems that it’s just right to call.

For some time now, I’ve been playing and it seems that I’m always drawing whenever I flopped an open ended straight or 4 to the flush, w/out calculating odds. I’m having problems with gutshot sometimes. Well, I understand that if you have a gutshot on the flop you have a 1/11 chance of hitting. But what if you are playing $3/6, how much should be in the pot for you to call $3 for the gutshot? I guess $33. And how about if have 8 outs, does this mean I have a 1/4 chance on the river? When playing in a low limit game, how strongly should implied odds be considered?

Do you think I’m just missing something? I think I should try to read more tips, situational problems, etc.

Thanks for your time.

Warm regards,
Johnny
Johnny,

In your first example, you actually had odds to call. You had a call equal to 13.8% of the pot and a 16% chance to hit your hand. You should have called.

When figuring out pot odds, if your call is a low percentage of the pot than your percentage to hit your hand, then you need to make the call.

As far as calling $3 for a gutshot draw. On the flop there should be at least $19 in the pot for you to call $3.

Implied odds should not be a concern in Limit Holdem. NL holdem is a better use for Implied odds.

About Odds

Hello,

I don’t want to offend you with this but you listed before the odds of 2 over cards improving to a pair by the river at only 26% while you listed the odds of AK hitting an A or a K by the river at even. Why these two are not the same? Anything behind this?

Thank you very much in advance.

Warm regards,
Dave
Dave,

The reason these values are different is because that in the case of the over cards, there are more known cards. If you hold 10-J and someone has a pair of nines, you know two of the possible cards and actually eliminated 4 outs from the calculation. In this case you know 6 of 52 cards.

The calculation of A-K improving to a pair is based on no other cards being known. In this case you only know 2 of 52 cards.

Personal Points

Hi,

Just the other day, I saw and have actually read the question about the Ultimate Bet’s Algorithm. I would like to make some points, I hope it’s okay.

First, most if not all of the poker sites use software from the Microgaming organization. Second, some poker sites have letters of approval from auditors who are internationally renowned. Third, I believe it’s quite easy and simple to fall into the trap of questioning card activity due to the amount of hands played. Fourth, turn at such instance was expected to be 1 of 5 cards listed as 6 (4 of), K (4 of), pair 1 of the flop cards J,8,3 (3 of, each) which then equaled to 17 cards and 1/2 odds or 67% probability. Therefore, the 81% sample doesn’t fit. Finally, the odds of the river are actually moving or acting the same as the turn, in case turn doesn’t hit, two will be the same.

I hope I make sense here.

Many thanks,
Mr. Hansen
Mr. Hansen,

With all the recent investigations involving Ultimate Bet, it probably would be inappropriate for me to comment on their site specifically. I would say that with most sites, that due to the high number of hands played, there will be some abnormal looking occurrences. My best suggestion to players would be to switch sites if you think something is fishy with the site you play at. Of course, there is also live poker.

$2/4 Game

Hi,

I believe you once said that “A $2/4 no limit game is much larger than a $2/4 limit one.” Sorry but I have no idea what’s a $2/4 no limit game. What is it? Well the name implies there’s no limit so why $2/4? I think I know what you’re trying to actually imply however I’m not sure maybe I misunderstood something.

By the way, about the term limits, it implies the maximum and that something less than it can be wagered. For an instance, in a $5/10 limit game, the maximum that can be bet on the turn is $10. So can $5 or $7 be bet instead? Or else the preflop and flop bets should be in $5 increments only and the turn and river bets in $10 increments?

I hope I make sense here. Hope to hear from you soon.

Thanks in advance!

All the best,
Clark
Clark,

A $2-$4 No Limit game is referring to the size of the blinds. The betting is no limit, but the blinds are at $2-$4.

In a limit game, the betting limits are fixed amounts. You can think of Limit Holdem as Fixed Limit Holdem. In a $5-$10 Limit game, the preflop and flop betting is in increments of $5 and the turn and river betting is $10 bets.

Trey Vs. Deuce

Hi,

Last week, in ESPN’s fictional game, a father/son ended up as adversaries in a certain hand. I remember the father had Jack/trey and the son had Jack/deuce. Flop was Jack-ten-eight. Honestly, I am not so sure about the ten and eight but they’re not important to the hand anyway. To continue, turn came and was another insignificant card, I think it was a five. Well, nobody paired on the turn or river. Do you think the result should be a tie? A split pot perhaps?

Later, the winning hand was given to the father as his trey was higher than his son’s deuce. I don’t exactly understand this, hope you can help me.

Hope to hear from you in no time.

All the best,
Anthony
Anthony,

This should have been a split pot. Both players had a pair of Jacks with a 10-8-5 kicker. If the hand unfolded as you described, then whoever made the show didn’t know what they were doing.

Fill Someone’s Open Ended Straight

Hello,

I remember that for once you’ve used the following as example:

Hole: AK
Board: TJ4

Well, it implies that drawing to the queen is actually more justifiable as you have 2 overs. I agree a bit as I don’t know what will happen in the event Ace or King drops. It’s a good thing that suddenly you have top pair-top kicker. But what if it just fill someone’s open ended straight?

I’ve already seen a lot of games by which one person hits the top pair which just happens to be the high end of someone else’s straight.

Any thoughts?

Many thanks,
Ry
Ry,

If you think they are on a draw, then bet out to chase them out the pot if you can. Otherwise, if you bet your top pair and meet resistance, you may want to consider getting away from the hand.

High Cards in Early Position

Hi,

I’ve been into local free rolls in my place. Well, I play two or three times a week. Most of the time, I face bunch of players with various approaches.

Majority of the players I’ve encountered were loose type thus making it hard for me to steal pots even with a preflop raise and a continuation bet. On the better side, I still can make it to the final table in just almost half the time. There’s just one situation I can never forget.

In early position back then, I had a decent hand, AKs, AK, AQs, AQ. For approximately three times the BB I raised and then got several callers. Flop came but of no help. Later, turn came but of also no help to me, I haven’t made a hand still. At such point, I was in doubts if placing another bet will be a good move.

If you were me, will you place another bet? Well, personally I want to place another one to obtain more info. Also, if I was back in position, how would the situation change? Do you think for free card, I should just check it down to the river and then wait and see if other player place a bet on the river? What do you think?

Hope to hear from you soon.

Many thanks,
John
John,

If you are in position with this hand and raised preflop, you need to bet out on the flop and then if you are still in at the turn, bet out again. You need to take advantage of the position and try to force them out when they show weakness.

Revealing Lost Hand

Hello,

I was in a no limit tournament just recently. It was arranged by some individuals in our place. I remember there were no real rules at all instead just one guy who will act as a “judge”.

In front me was one guy who was really drunk. I saw him picking on one of the ladies several times. Well, the two ended up in a hand together with just a little money in the pot. River came and the lady placed a bet and the drunk guy called her. Guy then revealed his cards and then lady mucked. Guy then was irritated as the lady didn’t showed her cards though she lost.

I was really curious then. I don’t know if one really have to show his or her cards when he or she is called or can he or she muck his or her cards anytime? Is there any rule I need to know?Please I need your help.

Many thanks,
Bude
Bude,

When a player is called at the river, their opponent has the right to see their cards. The player can muck their hand, but their opponent can request the dealer to show the hand.

Showing Both Cards

Hello,

Good thing I was able to make it to the final table in a certain tournament. I had K, 3 and flop was K, 2, J.

At certain point, I raised and everyone else folded. One particular guy then asked me to show my cards. Well, I only showed my King later. However, there were two other guys who insisted that I have to show both my cards.

Now, I want to know, if the hand is over and everyone has folded and I prefer to show just one card but others at the table want to see both my cards, what must I do? Do I have to show my other card though I am hesitant? If yes, is it proper for someone to request for the revealing of the other hand in the situation I have described?

By the way, I also want to know if in case you are heads up and player 1 goes all in on the turn and player 2 calls the all-in and reveals his cards, is player 1 required to turn his cards over right then and there or he can actually wait till river is turned? Any thoughts?

Thanks a lot!

Regards,
Smith
Smith,

If everyone has folded their hand, then you are not obligated to show your cards.

However, if someone goes all in and is called, then both players must turn their cards over. A player may not wait until the river.

Dealer Mistake

Hi,

Before anything, I would like first to commend you for this nice site. Great job on this one and keep it up!

Well, I’m here now to share something and ask from you a piece of advice or the like. Just recently, I was able to make it to a semi-final tournament for a cash prize. Dealer in the said tournament also played. She was still in the hand when the river came. She then burned a card from the deck and then showed one of her two cards as the river card. Then bets were made and afterwards she claimed that everything she did was done without intention. Some watchers called the director. A few players then expressed they saw her do such thing intentionally. However, some players have no idea at all about what happened.

Personally, I believe that as a dealer, once she exposed her card, with or with intention, she should be out of the hand and any bets she had made should be forfeited. However, the director said that it was with no intention, that it was just an accident and so she could have her card and then go on as nothing happened.

Now, I want to know your opinion. I believe she was careless. What do you think?

Thank you in advance.

Warm regards,
Pearman
Pearman,

I do see why people would say it was intentional. 2 cards are not as thick as the 28 cards of the deck. I don’t see how she made that mistake, but I wasn’t there.

Calling His Re-Raise All In

Hi,

Assume that I called a raise preflop three times the blinds with 4 callers and with 26 suited hearts in a certain game. Flop was Ah 2s 4h. Then a player placed a bet on flop and so I re-raised twice his raise. I got 2 callers. Turn was 8h. Eventually, I was able to hit my flush draw however 2 callers seemed to be present. River came and was 6s. I then placed a bet approximately 200% of the pot so that I’ll look like as if I’ll be stealing the pot. First player then re-raised all in while I called thus making the pot a very big pot. Other player then called.

In the end, first player showed AQ while the other one, QJ suited hearts. The latter one won the pot.

Now, do you think it was a good thing that I called his re-raise all in or I should have just folded when I felt there was something wrong? Any thoughts?

Thank you.

Regards,
Freeman
Freeman,

You should have folded preflop.

How Do You Find My Play?

Hi,

I joined a cash game at a local card room with blinds 2/3. If I remember it right, there were 7 players then fighting for the pot. Most of the players were really good, they have combined tight and aggressive style of play and have a few hundred to back them up.

At some point, I’m UTG with AQs. I then raised to $9. Folded to button who re-raised to 25$, blinds folded. Consequently, I opted to call as I’ve seen such player checked down several hands earlier part of the game. Pot was $55. Flop came and brought J35 rainbow. I then checked to the raiser while he placed $50 bet. Eventually, I placed him on a steal, AK, or a pocket pair below Jacks. I then called. Pot was $155. Turn came but was a blank. Later, we both checked. River came and was another Jack. I then had some winnings and so placed $125 bet. I thought he would never call with AK or pocket 10s.

At some point, he stood up and then asked me if I have a Jack. I was speechless then. Afterwards he called and then had the pot with his KK.

How do you find my play?

Your help will be much appreciated.

Thanks!

Billy
Billy,

You should have folded on the flop when you missed.

Played With Weakness

Hello,

I was in a no limit event the other day with $4,000 buy-in and blinds 10/20. I had $3,500. At some point, everyone folded to me. When I was on the button, I got Ad 5s and then popped it up to 80. Eventually, small and big blind called. Then flop came and brought 5c 5d 7d. Later, SB and BB checked and so I placed 140$ bet, almost half the pot I believe.

Consequently, SB folded however BB raised to 380$. I then thought he had something weak therefore I tried to slow play. I then called. Turn came and brought 9d. Board then appeared as 5c 5d 7d 9d. Though there was a possibility for a straight and flush, I had Ad and trips therefore I had to fold then. Few seconds after and BB placed 700$ bet while I called.

River came and brought Qc. BB went all in for all my money. I remember I had around 2,200$ and in the pot, 4,800$. Finally, I folded.

In the end, he flipped over 44 and then laughed at me. I don’t know if I played just right. Well, I don’t think doing the slow play then was a bad move. But I believe I should have pushed all-in on turn with my flush draw and then had trips. Another thing, I don’t see how I should call on the river and the only stuff I beat was a bluff. What do you think?

Regards,
Collin
Collin,

At the river, there were lots of hands you could beat other than a bluff. I would have likely made the call with my set, especially since the player had been aggressive the whole way. Of course, I would have raised him at some point. Don’t slow play a set with a straight and flush draw possible.