Posts Tagged ‘straight draw’

How Important Are Pot Odds?

Yesterday I was in a friendly tourney. Something came up. Right after I mucked my straight flush draw on the river based on pot odds and saw the card I needed, I started to think if pots odds are really that important in a tourney ever since. Your thoughts on this?

In ring games I know pot odds are significant in case you want to play with probabilities and make them play in your advantage.

By the way, if I may just share this, I lost AAA once to a guy who called my all-in with lesser chips and with a straight draw on the river. He needed a 9 and then that was it, he got A 9 on the river. Was he just lucky then?

Thank you very much!

Regards,
Turner
Turner,

Pot odds are very important in tournaments. A lot of times it makes the difference in calling an all-in for your tournament life and folding.

In regards to the A-9 hand, he was just lucky. On the flop, he had 16% to win and on the turn he only had 8% to win.

Adjusting Game and Quick Calculation Method of Odds

Hello,

Before, I’m actually into hosting of home tournaments which typically with 40-50 players. Buy in then was around $50, therefore I’ve only accepted players who belonged to average to good category. But just recently, I decided to have some friends over to play in small 10-12 people $20 buy-in tournaments. Unfortunately I was busted out in most of those games so quick. I believe my problem then was about adjusting. I found it hard to adjust my game to the table. Maybe one factor to consider is that I’ve been so use to playing with good players, by which my situational bluffs work. Your thoughts?

By the way, I also want to share to you something. One guy once taught me how to calculate hand odds quickly. According to him all I have to do is this – (outs *2) + 1 = percentage. Therefore if you have 8 outs (open ended straight draw) then (8 * 2) + 1 = 17%. But recently I saw that you showed such at 34%. Well, I know that you’re calculating hitting the hand by the river (2 draws). In the event there was a flush potential also then 8 (open ender cards) + 9 (flush cards remaining) – 2 (remove the 2 flush cards that also complete your straight…. 8 added) = 15 outs or 31%.

Hope to hear from you soon.

Many thanks,
Kirk
Kirk,

When you play with bad players, bluffs will not work that well. You will need to either tighten up and play solid poker or play small ball and crush your opponents when you flop well.

Your calculation for hand odds is a good one, but to figure out from the flop, multiply your calculation by 2. 15 outs on the flop has around a 62% chance to win with your formula.

On Odds

Hello,

Say in late position I started the hand with Js and 10c. Afterwards, everybody called. I also called and then flop appeared, Ah Qh 9s. I now have an open ended straight draw. Two out of five players who called pre-flop remains at such point. One player raised the other called. Then I called after I considered my odds and the pot odds. Turn came, 4h. Then same player raised. At such point maybe the other two guys have an ace and so I might win in case I draw the straight on the river. But I noticed three hearts were on the board and if either one of them has pocket hearts I will lose. Based on your probabilities chart there was a 1:4 chance of being dealt suited cards although I’m assuming the odds of being dealt suited hearts are 1:16. And with two or three players the odds that at least one of them has pocket hearts may be better than 1:16. Odds then were 1:4. I figured out with my open ended straight draw I have eight outs with about 1:6 odds of hitting it.

How do you think I can factor my opponents 1:4 odds of having a flush and beating me and my 1:6 odds of hitting the straight combined with the pot odds to ascertain whether or not I should call or fold?

Thanks a lot!

Regards,
Denz
Denz,

At the turn, with 8 outs, you have a 16% chance to hit your hand. If you don’t think your opponent has a flush, if the amount to call is 16% or less of the total pot, then take a shot at your draw. Otherwise, it is time to fold.

What if I Acted Differently?

Hello,

I’ve been into poker just this year. I guess I’ve been playing for just about 7 months now. Well, as of the moment, I’m more into no limit, mainly online. At times, I also play at the casinos.

Just recently, I was in an online no limit sit and go tourney. A certain hand came up and I think I have misplayed it.

I remember the tourney started with 10 players and with 1500 starting chip amount. Blinds were 10/20 at the beginning but then moved up later. After more than 20 minutes of play, tourney-blinds were 25/50 with 9 players.

At some point, I was in the small blind and was dealt K K, club and diamond. My stack was around $1900. There were three players who limped in, including the button who was the chip leader with around $3,500. He was actually playing aggressive on the post flop, normal preflop.

Later, I raised to four times the blind, thus masking it $200 to go. Flop then came and brought 9 which was a diamond, 7 another diamond, and 5 a heart. Afterwards, I placed $400 bet with a desire to take home the pot with a flush or straight draw on the board. After a while, button re-raised me to $800 and so I place him on one of these hands: nut flush draw (A-x diamonds), top pair strong kicker (A-9), a set (9s, 7,s or 5,s), and straight draw (JT).

I had so many things in mind then but later I chose to go all in. He then flipped over 8 which was a club and 6 which was a spades. Well, turn and river didn’t gave anything good so I was busted out.

Honestly, every time I remember such tourney I don’t feel really bad. However, what if I folded and picked my battles with the other more predictable tight players, could the results have been much better for me? What’s on your thoughts?

Thanks!

Regards,
Carron
Carron,

You pretty much got unlucky in my opinion.