Posts Tagged ‘strategies’

Cards Unseen and Odds

Hi,

I’ve been checking on your site for some tips and strategies. One time as I was reading one of your articles, I thought of something which I can’t directly figured out. Most of the time, you base the establishing of the odds of getting a card on fourth street and then on fifth street on the remaining deck, for an instance 47 then 46. Well to me this is just simple to understand but I have one concern. In case there are nine other players, each with two pocket cards, will the probability of catching `your trips/four of a kind, straight, flush etc., become conditional on your need cards not sitting in another pocket? How do you think one figures out the real statistical probabilities with regards to such?

I’ll be glad to hear from you soon.

Many thanks,
Lance
Lance,

You figure your probability based on unseen cards. Just because the cards “might” be in someone else’s hand, that does not mean they are. I’m sure that the statistical probabilities are available on said scenario, but they are not part of practical poker odds calculations.

On Randomness of Poker Sites

Hello,

First, I’ll start by sharing that I’m just new to poker. I started two months ago and before that I had no experience with poker but had gambled a lot in different ways. I am into no limit and limit.

Just a background, my poker adventure began with friendly game invites from various groups of buddies. And because I had no idea back then as to what I should do when on play, I attached myself to poker sites, books, and the like. Proud to say I was able to understand basic poker concepts, rules, feel, and even strategies. But of course as a starting player I guess it’s just normal that despite of everything, my mind is still clouded with some questions.

Some of the questions are actually below.

1. In a game, who is required to show his hand? And in what order should the hands be shown? In case you fold, I know you don’t have to show your hand, but what if everyone has called the bets?
2. I always here some players moaning about how online poker sites seem to juice the pot to later increase the rake from pot. I also here them say the juicing never happens in real brick and mortar games. Well, I have some thoughts on this, they’re about three-fold.

a. In an online game, the randomness is closer to true randomness than a brick and mortar game as it takes 57 and a half shuffles to finally randomize a deck of cards completely. Similarly, online poker is closer to true randomness than a home game.
b. Trends are more pronounced and the probability for everyone having a good hand at one instance is increased as players play and see more hands online than they actually do in brick and more games.
c. More or less, they are just sore losers and just like the players who claimed cheated or rigged in brick and mortar games.

Any thoughts?

By the way, the card shuffling statistical analysis I made has actually a basis. I took up a statistics course in a certain university so I know I’m capable of making stats.

Thanks in advance.

Regards,
Dense
Dense,

1. The last player to make an aggressive action (bet or raise) is the first person to show the hand. Only players that have their bet at the river are required to show their hands.
   
2. They are likely just complaining. Online sites such as Full Tilt and Pokerstars don’t need to juice the tables. They have so many players, they can make plenty of money from the normal rake. At any one time, they have 10,000 or more tables going. That’s a lot of rake.

Strategy on Isolating an Opponent

Hi,

I was in an online event early this morning. I was in mid position with the largest stack and was dealt AA. For ten times the big blind, first position raised. I thought of isolating him and so I raised him. However, the dealer and the two blinds called my raise, same thing with the original bettor. Flop came and brought JTJ rainbow. Original raiser then placed a bet by which was 3/4 of his stack however didn’t went all in. I then placed him on KK, QQ, or even AT. I then opted to fold as three bettors were waiting and any of them had a J. Others left folded.

Well, I honestly believe that with my position, I was at a major disadvantage and so I wanted to know if you have any strategies in mind about how I should isolate an opponent. At some point, I believe I should have went all in. What do you think?

Thanks a lot and keep up the good work on this site!

Regards,

Corbeil
Corbeil,

I think your fold on the flop was good not because of your position but due to your opponents bet. He bet ¾ of his stack. This looks like someone trying to induce a call or a raise. He probably had A-J or maybe even J-J. I think you made a fantastic fold.