Posts Tagged ‘turn’

How to Calculate Poker Odds

Hello,

I have a problem on how to calculate poker odds. Well, I have already seen all the hand odds/probabilities charts and already found brief summaries on how to calculate poker odds. But still, I have some questions in mind. Say you didn’t get an ace for a first card and so the odds of getting it on your second increase to 51:1. I know writing everything in paper is quite impractical, so can I do the calculation myself?

Assume that I have two suited cards in my hand and I like to calculate the poker odds of drawing a complete flush by the flop, and so as by the turn and river. In case I have 3 to the flush on the flop, what’s next? How about 4 to the flush on the flop, etc.?

Please help me. Thank you in advance!

Best regards,
Charlie Cowell
Charlie,

By all means, if you would rather do calculations yourself, you can, but to be honest, doing them on paper is long and drawed out. You need to learn to be able to do these calculations in your head. You should use the 4 – 2 method to calculate odds. Also, you shouldn’t be trying to figure odds on runner runner draws. That is just going to burn money out of your stack.

On 4/2 Rule

Hi,

Well I’m aware of the shortcut used when figuring out poker odds that I really like; the 4 – 2 rule. And I understand to take the number of outs you have before the turn and simply multiply it by 4 to know your success rate. And before the river, do the same thing but multiply it by 2. I wonder if there’s a shortcut that use the same methodology, you think of any?

Thank you in advance!

Best regards,
Howell
Howell,

The 4-2 rule IS the shortcut. Figuring odds usually involves long equations that many math challenged people can’t grasp. This is a simplified way to do things.

When to Draw

Hi,

I’ve been into poker for some time now but for some reasons I still don’t when I’m supposed to draw. Any thoughts? For an instance I have a four flush on the flop and someone bets big, do you think I should call fold? Or if not, raise?

Your help will be much appreciated.

Thanks a lot!

Warm regards,
Romeo
Romeo,

You should only draw to a straight or flush when you have the proper odds to do so. The simplest way to figure this out is first to determine what outs you have. Say you have 9 outs to hit your hand after the flop. Multiply this by 4 and you have your percentage to hit your hand. If you are on the turn, multiply by 2. Next, divide the amount that you must call in the pot, by the current pot size. This will give you the percentage of the pot that your call represents. If the percentage of your hitting the hand is greater than or equal to the percentage of the pot that you must call, then you should draw. If not, then fold.

Improving Pocket Cards Odds

Hi there!

I’m here once again to ask something. This time my question is regarding odds of improving pocket cards. Once I had the chance to take a look at the table you provided under the heading ‘Hand odds and probabilities’ but things seemed a bit confusing as the poker terminologies used were complexed then.

Now, say I am dealt a pocket pair and I would like to know the odds of improving this by the flop, turn and river for all possible combinations. Format could be like ??/1 and could actually be used for other variations of pocket cards like suited cards for flushes and straight flushes, connected cards for straights, and the like.

I’ll be expecting for your response in no time.

Thanks a ton!

Regards,
Gerard McClaine
Gerard,

First lets figure out your odds not to improve on each card on the flop. First, 48 cards out of 50 will not improve you hand on the flop. This is represented by 48/50. The second card is 47/50, and the third card 46/50. You then divide the numerator by the denominator and get you percentage for each card. For our example that is .96, .959, and .958. Multiply those three numbers together and you get .88, which is 88%. This means that there is an 88% chance that you will miss the flop and a 12% chance that you will hit the flop and make your set.

Beyond this, use the 4 and 2 method to calculate turn and river odds. Multiply your out, 2, by 4 which will yield 8% to catch your set on the turn. Then multiply 2 by 2 to get your result of 4% to improve on the river.

I would recommend you do some research about calculations online to help determine the other variations that you’re looking for.

Chances of Hitting

Hi,

I’m wondering if what are the odds for the over cards hitting again, any idea? And before preflop, how do you figure them out? Well I do know that there’s a 6 out of 47 and 6 out of 46 percent chance of hitting on the turn and river, however how do you calculate for all three cards of the flop? Your thoughts please.

Hope to hear from you soon.

Many thanks,
Jeffrey Green
Jeffrey,

The odds of your overcards hitting the flop are 2 to 1 against. To calculate this, deduct the number of cards in your hand and all the aces and king remaining in the deck. The flops that can be dealt that miss your hand is C(44,3). The percentage of flops you won’t pair is C(44,3)/C(50,3), or about 67%, which is 2:1 once converted into odds.

How Important Are Pot Odds?

Yesterday I was in a friendly tourney. Something came up. Right after I mucked my straight flush draw on the river based on pot odds and saw the card I needed, I started to think if pots odds are really that important in a tourney ever since. Your thoughts on this?

In ring games I know pot odds are significant in case you want to play with probabilities and make them play in your advantage.

By the way, if I may just share this, I lost AAA once to a guy who called my all-in with lesser chips and with a straight draw on the river. He needed a 9 and then that was it, he got A 9 on the river. Was he just lucky then?

Thank you very much!

Regards,
Turner
Turner,

Pot odds are very important in tournaments. A lot of times it makes the difference in calling an all-in for your tournament life and folding.

In regards to the A-9 hand, he was just lucky. On the flop, he had 16% to win and on the turn he only had 8% to win.

4/2 Rule

Hello,

Say you are at a full table with 9 other players. Then there are 20 cards dealt, 1 is burned and flop 3 is dealt. You actually have AK when flop appears, K 9 2. You have 5 outs ( A,A, A K K) Based on the 4/2 rule, there would be a 20% (4 x 5) possibility for the turn and 10% (2 x 5) for the river. But I wonder, should the 24 cards that were initially bet be considered?

Thanks and more power!

Warm regards,
Jones
Jones,

When using the 4/2 rule, you don’t worry about cards you see or that have been dealt. This is a simplified pot odds method to use that doesn’t require high math competency to use.

Heads Up Odds

Hi,

Just recently, I had an argument with a certain guy online. Well, he went all in with Queens and had two callers who created a side pot. Back then, I had AJ. There was another guy but I don’t know what he had then as he folded earlier. At some point, I had running Aces on the turn and river to win the hand. He then started complaining about my luckiness. I told him afterwards that Queens was not a mortal lock as long as I had one overcard and straight potential. And that with two callers, he was actually the favorite but also the overall dog.

I’ve been watching WSOP for some time now and from it I’ve learned a few things. The most important thing I guess is the one about when a pair against two overcards is a 53% favorite head’s up; the higher of two pairs is an 80% favorite head-to-head.

Anyway, guy who hosted the house game said I played the worst starting hand (72) against the best (AA) which will win about 12% of the time. Your thoughts?

On a side note, what are the odds of QQ against AJ as outlined above? I think the answer would be around 65%.

Thank you in advance!

Best regards,
Tyler
Tyler,

Pocket queens are 71% against A-J. 7-2 offsuit will indeed beat A-A 12% of the time. You were incorrect with him being an overall underdog with two callers. Actually, with 2 callers, he becomes more of a favorite over you depending on the hand. His win percentage is lowered, but so is everyone elses.

As far as your hand, you were fortunate to win, but heads-up both of the hands were very strong. He is just upset you won.

Turn or River Odds

Hello,

Once in a certain material I encountered this line: “For figuring out odds for a draw that can hit on either the turn or the river (keyword either), you need to do something a little more complicated — you figure out what the odds are of not hitting it and the subtracting that number by 1. Since 5 cards give us our hand, there must be 42 that don’t. Then on the river if we haven’t hit there must be 41 cards that don’t make our hand. 42/47 * 41/46. This gives us 795, now subtract that from 1 to get the percentage of 20%. Flop to River % = 1 – [ ((47 - Outs) / 47) * ((46 - Outs) / 46) ]”. Can you please explain this to me a little more?

I’ll be looking forward for your response.

Many thanks,
Jason
Jason,

Make is simple on yourself. When you are at the flop, figure out the number of cards that you perceive as your outs and multiply that by 4. This will give you the percentage to hit your hand on the flop. At the turn, multiply your outs by 2. This will give your percentage to hit your hand.

Pot Odds Problems

Hi,

I was in a certain event just last night. I’ve got 8,10 clubs and the flop was 9,J,4 rainbow therefore I flopped the open ender. Then I called $5 to see the turn but don’t hit. After a while, a particular player placed a bet with two others behind me. At such point, pot was $72. I then considered that because I only had 1 card to go, with 8 outs, I had roughly 16% chance of hitting the river and would probably cost me $10 for the $72 pot, 7:1 on my bet. I immediately folded.

I don’t know why but I thought afterwards that if $82 was in and it would cost me $10 to call the river, then that would be 8:1 on my money. If I have the same 16% chance to hit, it seems that it’s just right to call.

For some time now, I’ve been playing and it seems that I’m always drawing whenever I flopped an open ended straight or 4 to the flush, w/out calculating odds. I’m having problems with gutshot sometimes. Well, I understand that if you have a gutshot on the flop you have a 1/11 chance of hitting. But what if you are playing $3/6, how much should be in the pot for you to call $3 for the gutshot? I guess $33. And how about if have 8 outs, does this mean I have a 1/4 chance on the river? When playing in a low limit game, how strongly should implied odds be considered?

Do you think I’m just missing something? I think I should try to read more tips, situational problems, etc.

Thanks for your time.

Warm regards,
Johnny
Johnny,

In your first example, you actually had odds to call. You had a call equal to 13.8% of the pot and a 16% chance to hit your hand. You should have called.

When figuring out pot odds, if your call is a low percentage of the pot than your percentage to hit your hand, then you need to make the call.

As far as calling $3 for a gutshot draw. On the flop there should be at least $19 in the pot for you to call $3.

Implied odds should not be a concern in Limit Holdem. NL holdem is a better use for Implied odds.

Personal Points

Hi,

Just the other day, I saw and have actually read the question about the Ultimate Bet’s Algorithm. I would like to make some points, I hope it’s okay.

First, most if not all of the poker sites use software from the Microgaming organization. Second, some poker sites have letters of approval from auditors who are internationally renowned. Third, I believe it’s quite easy and simple to fall into the trap of questioning card activity due to the amount of hands played. Fourth, turn at such instance was expected to be 1 of 5 cards listed as 6 (4 of), K (4 of), pair 1 of the flop cards J,8,3 (3 of, each) which then equaled to 17 cards and 1/2 odds or 67% probability. Therefore, the 81% sample doesn’t fit. Finally, the odds of the river are actually moving or acting the same as the turn, in case turn doesn’t hit, two will be the same.

I hope I make sense here.

Many thanks,
Mr. Hansen
Mr. Hansen,

With all the recent investigations involving Ultimate Bet, it probably would be inappropriate for me to comment on their site specifically. I would say that with most sites, that due to the high number of hands played, there will be some abnormal looking occurrences. My best suggestion to players would be to switch sites if you think something is fishy with the site you play at. Of course, there is also live poker.

$2/4 Game

Hi,

I believe you once said that “A $2/4 no limit game is much larger than a $2/4 limit one.” Sorry but I have no idea what’s a $2/4 no limit game. What is it? Well the name implies there’s no limit so why $2/4? I think I know what you’re trying to actually imply however I’m not sure maybe I misunderstood something.

By the way, about the term limits, it implies the maximum and that something less than it can be wagered. For an instance, in a $5/10 limit game, the maximum that can be bet on the turn is $10. So can $5 or $7 be bet instead? Or else the preflop and flop bets should be in $5 increments only and the turn and river bets in $10 increments?

I hope I make sense here. Hope to hear from you soon.

Thanks in advance!

All the best,
Clark
Clark,

A $2-$4 No Limit game is referring to the size of the blinds. The betting is no limit, but the blinds are at $2-$4.

In a limit game, the betting limits are fixed amounts. You can think of Limit Holdem as Fixed Limit Holdem. In a $5-$10 Limit game, the preflop and flop betting is in increments of $5 and the turn and river betting is $10 bets.

Trey Vs. Deuce

Hi,

Last week, in ESPN’s fictional game, a father/son ended up as adversaries in a certain hand. I remember the father had Jack/trey and the son had Jack/deuce. Flop was Jack-ten-eight. Honestly, I am not so sure about the ten and eight but they’re not important to the hand anyway. To continue, turn came and was another insignificant card, I think it was a five. Well, nobody paired on the turn or river. Do you think the result should be a tie? A split pot perhaps?

Later, the winning hand was given to the father as his trey was higher than his son’s deuce. I don’t exactly understand this, hope you can help me.

Hope to hear from you in no time.

All the best,
Anthony
Anthony,

This should have been a split pot. Both players had a pair of Jacks with a 10-8-5 kicker. If the hand unfolded as you described, then whoever made the show didn’t know what they were doing.

Raising on the Flop with a Flush Draw to Obtain a Free Card

Hi,

I want to ask something. It’s about raising on the flop with a flush draw to obtain a free card. I’m wondering if you know what’s the logical and sound way to make this play in the event there’s action on the turn. Any thoughts?

Another thing, is the act of raising the flop to obtain a free card the best move when playing against 1 opponent with a made hand? And if a call and a bet appear, what do you think will happen?

Well, in limits things seem clear, but I’m clueless about the things to happen in case you miss on the turn. Is it worth calling a bet on the turn? But how about if they bet with a reasonable amount on the flop?

I look forward to hearing from you soon.

Many thanks!

Warm regards,
Leo
Leo,

Raising to get a free card is best to do with one or two opponents only. If they call, they may check on the turn to you. If they don’t, this gives you a better idea of the hand they have. But another thing is that if they call the raise, they may be laying you better odds to draw on the turn to you flush.

On the turn, you have to go by pot odds to determine to draw or not. If you have the proper odds, then call the bet. If you don’t, then fold.

AA or KK

Hi,

For some time now, I’ve been thinking on what’s the proper way to play starting hands like AA or KK as I oftentimes hear that normally with AA or KK you will either win a small pot or lose a big one. Well, I started thinking that because you rarely get such cards in the hole, probably these are actually not so good hands.

Consider what I have above, what if instead of following customary wisdom and betting such hands hard preflop to eventually clean up the field and reduce the number of players, why shouldn’t I just consider such like any small pair and then try to see the flop cheaply? In this way, I believe strength will remain kept and in case I flop a set I can have the opportunity to extract important value from the hand itself. In case I won’t flop the set, I can still have a feel as to where I stand. But more or less I have to muck on the turn, however at least I gave myself the opportunity to fight out.

Any thoughts?

Thanks,
Joey
Joey,

You can play the hand that way if you desire, but when you let multiple players in, you give them the same opportunity to draw out on you and chase after larger hands. If you are heads-up with one opponent, this is sometimes a decent strategy. Another option would be to limp into a pot that you know will be raised by an overly aggressive player. When they raise, you reraise them. Chances are they will go all in and you will be a big favorite.

High Cards in Early Position

Hi,

I’ve been into local free rolls in my place. Well, I play two or three times a week. Most of the time, I face bunch of players with various approaches.

Majority of the players I’ve encountered were loose type thus making it hard for me to steal pots even with a preflop raise and a continuation bet. On the better side, I still can make it to the final table in just almost half the time. There’s just one situation I can never forget.

In early position back then, I had a decent hand, AKs, AK, AQs, AQ. For approximately three times the BB I raised and then got several callers. Flop came but of no help. Later, turn came but of also no help to me, I haven’t made a hand still. At such point, I was in doubts if placing another bet will be a good move.

If you were me, will you place another bet? Well, personally I want to place another one to obtain more info. Also, if I was back in position, how would the situation change? Do you think for free card, I should just check it down to the river and then wait and see if other player place a bet on the river? What do you think?

Hope to hear from you soon.

Many thanks,
John
John,

If you are in position with this hand and raised preflop, you need to bet out on the flop and then if you are still in at the turn, bet out again. You need to take advantage of the position and try to force them out when they show weakness.

Showing Both Cards

Hello,

Good thing I was able to make it to the final table in a certain tournament. I had K, 3 and flop was K, 2, J.

At certain point, I raised and everyone else folded. One particular guy then asked me to show my cards. Well, I only showed my King later. However, there were two other guys who insisted that I have to show both my cards.

Now, I want to know, if the hand is over and everyone has folded and I prefer to show just one card but others at the table want to see both my cards, what must I do? Do I have to show my other card though I am hesitant? If yes, is it proper for someone to request for the revealing of the other hand in the situation I have described?

By the way, I also want to know if in case you are heads up and player 1 goes all in on the turn and player 2 calls the all-in and reveals his cards, is player 1 required to turn his cards over right then and there or he can actually wait till river is turned? Any thoughts?

Thanks a lot!

Regards,
Smith
Smith,

If everyone has folded their hand, then you are not obligated to show your cards.

However, if someone goes all in and is called, then both players must turn their cards over. A player may not wait until the river.

Reshuffle or Not

Hello,

In a certain tourney, there were two players involved in a particular hand. At the turn, both checked. Player 1 checked at fourth street however player 2 placed a reasonable bet to put player 1 all-in.

Later, dealer thought player 1 folded and so placed the rest of the cards into the muck and then pushed the following cards to the following dealer. Afterwards, player 2 started to have the pot down however player 1 expressed he wanted to call the bet. Well, none of the players had mucked a hand at such point and so two cards were conceived to be still at the top of the pile.

In the end, though no one was totally sure which cards should be dealt, it was agreed to eventually burn and turn over the river card. Player 1 as a result had the winning hand. Because it was already mixed up with the mucked cards of the other players, deck could not be shuffled anymore.

Thanks for your time.

Wiederstein
Wiederstein,

I personally have not come across this situation so I asked help from a friend that is a tournament director for the World Series of Poker. She told me that in the event the deck was mixed up, take the entire muck pile, shuffle it, and then burn and deal out the rest of the hand.

Often Into Trouble

Hi,

For about 6 months now, I’ve been playing No Limit Texas Holdem. I believe I’ve been a reasonable player however I’m always into trouble particularly when playing under the gun with big hands. I oftentimes use my knowledge specifically on betting but most of the time I fail to use what I know to my own my advantage. Just like recently, in an online NL poker, out of the small blind with KK. Well, everyone called the BB, however I re-raised to go into the flop. Flop came and was actually disturbing then, A, T, 6. I was the first to act and so I placed a bet twice the pot. One of the players folded, others called. Turn came and was another Ace. I thought of placing another huge raise or if not an all in however I don’t want to throw money once again. On the flip side, I never thought of checking to him or placing a small bet as I don’t want to appear weak and the like.

If you were me, what might have you done? Stay aggressive on the turn and then again on the river and accept that I might be paying the other player off well or just check to him and prepare if he eventually opt to raise?

By the way, your site is so helpful. Keep it up!

Regards,
Witter
Witter,

First, on the flop, I would have bet ¾ of the pot, not 200%. ¾ of the pot looks like a value bet, where 200% makes it look like you have a pair under aces. When you were called, you should have checked the turn. It may look weak, but betting will pay off that player that called you with an ace.

Slowing Down a Lead Bettor and Check Raising the Turn

Hello,

I just want to know if how often does a call in position slow down a lead bettor in 6-handed high-stakes online games? And do you think players should expect more bluffs? How about big pots with weak hands, how common are they specifically where players are having a feel on the board texture and then go on in aggression or otherwise?

By the way, about the check-raising the turn without a super strong hand, is this common? It’s very important for me to know as I believe the turn is the most crucial street and it’s actually hard to play one pair hands if you don’t trust your opponent that much.

Thanks in advance. I hope to hear from you in no time.

All the best,
Albert
Albert,

Check raising the turn without a hand again depends on the player. “Durrrr” I could see doing that without blinking. The same with Phil Ivey applies. Phil Hellmuth I wouldn’t expect that out of him that often as he plays very tight and solid.

How Do You Find My Play?

Hi,

I joined a cash game at a local card room with blinds 2/3. If I remember it right, there were 7 players then fighting for the pot. Most of the players were really good, they have combined tight and aggressive style of play and have a few hundred to back them up.

At some point, I’m UTG with AQs. I then raised to $9. Folded to button who re-raised to 25$, blinds folded. Consequently, I opted to call as I’ve seen such player checked down several hands earlier part of the game. Pot was $55. Flop came and brought J35 rainbow. I then checked to the raiser while he placed $50 bet. Eventually, I placed him on a steal, AK, or a pocket pair below Jacks. I then called. Pot was $155. Turn came but was a blank. Later, we both checked. River came and was another Jack. I then had some winnings and so placed $125 bet. I thought he would never call with AK or pocket 10s.

At some point, he stood up and then asked me if I have a Jack. I was speechless then. Afterwards he called and then had the pot with his KK.

How do you find my play?

Your help will be much appreciated.

Thanks!

Billy
Billy,

You should have folded on the flop when you missed.

Played With Weakness

Hello,

I was in a no limit event the other day with $4,000 buy-in and blinds 10/20. I had $3,500. At some point, everyone folded to me. When I was on the button, I got Ad 5s and then popped it up to 80. Eventually, small and big blind called. Then flop came and brought 5c 5d 7d. Later, SB and BB checked and so I placed 140$ bet, almost half the pot I believe.

Consequently, SB folded however BB raised to 380$. I then thought he had something weak therefore I tried to slow play. I then called. Turn came and brought 9d. Board then appeared as 5c 5d 7d 9d. Though there was a possibility for a straight and flush, I had Ad and trips therefore I had to fold then. Few seconds after and BB placed 700$ bet while I called.

River came and brought Qc. BB went all in for all my money. I remember I had around 2,200$ and in the pot, 4,800$. Finally, I folded.

In the end, he flipped over 44 and then laughed at me. I don’t know if I played just right. Well, I don’t think doing the slow play then was a bad move. But I believe I should have pushed all-in on turn with my flush draw and then had trips. Another thing, I don’t see how I should call on the river and the only stuff I beat was a bluff. What do you think?

Regards,
Collin
Collin,

At the river, there were lots of hands you could beat other than a bluff. I would have likely made the call with my set, especially since the player had been aggressive the whole way. Of course, I would have raised him at some point. Don’t slow play a set with a straight and flush draw possible.